Two massive earthquakes, measuring 7.8 Pazarcik and 7.5 Elbistan, struck Turkey on February 6, 2023, causing extensive damage throughout the nation. The Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system was in use at the time, but it only calculated the magnitude of the 7.8 event to be 4.9 at 7.1 seconds after the origin time, which was far less than the real magnitude.
Only the less urgent "BeAware" alerts were distributed to half a million devices within a 64-kilometer radius due to this drastic underestimation, providing the impacted populations with few warnings. The first magnitude estimate for the M7.5 Elbistan earthquake was 6.1, however was later increased to 6.3. Nearly four million phones received "BeAware" alerts as a result, with warnings lasting anywhere from a few seconds to more than a minute.
Even though Google intends for AEA to be supplemental, systems like it are crucial since many earthquake-prone nations lack traditional seismic networks, which are necessary for detecting earthquakes early.
Although the system's poor performance during the earthquakes in Turkey is regrettable, the corporation has acknowledged its shortcomings and improved its detection algorithms. The algorithm's monitoring length for earthquake parameters, for instance, was originally set at 10 seconds; it has now been increased to 30 seconds, enabling the collection of more data.
Additionally, there was a problem with late-triggering, noisy phones in the monitoring pool, particularly during the initial earthquake. The system is now more discriminating about which phones are included in the system according to their noise level thanks to recent updates. In order for devices to stop vibrating and to continue reporting on the earthquake more precisely, Google has also upgraded the BeAware notifications.
According to Google's simulated tests using the new algorithms, if the 7.8 earthquake happened right now, it would detect a 4.6 earthquake after 6.3 seconds and a 7.4 earthquake after 24 seconds, making it far more accurate than it was previously. By doing this, 67 million users would have received BeAware warnings with a maximum warning time of 2.5 minutes, and 10 million devices would have received the more conspicuous TakeAction messages with a maximum warning time of 35 seconds.
Despite AEA's shortcomings, a poll of more than 1.5 million users who received any alerts from all nations save the US revealed an average helpfulness score of 4.7 out of 5, with 85% of respondents stating that their alerts were extremely helpful in their specific situation. 36% of people received warnings prior to the shaking, 28% received them during the shaking, and 23% received them following the shaking.
Compared to earlier studies by other earthquake early warning systems, those who received TakeAction notifications obeyed the Drop, Cover, and Hold On instructions 28% of the time. Just 0.1% of respondents had turned off warnings, but 84% of respondents stated they would have greater faith in the system going forward. With all the advancements Google has achieved, perhaps fewer people will die in the future.